The source is part of the data.
Machine Observer is a meta-index, which creates a special failure mode: the same underlying activity can appear in several indexes. Our methodology therefore scores sources, preserves provenance and delays composites until overlap can be measured.
Source confidence
Source confidence is a reproducible quality weight, not a probability that every claim is true.
30% methodology transparency
+ 25% direct observation
+ 20% machine readability
+ 15% historical depth
+ 10% independence
Non-negotiable rules
- Unknown values are stored as
null, never inferred for presentation. - Every publishable atomic claim carries a source ID, evidence URL and observation time.
- First-party sources receive no bonus. LikenessIndex is explicitly penalized on independence because it shares ownership.
- Several indexes derived from the same chain/query do not become independent votes merely because their websites differ.
- A valid payment quote is not paid fulfillment. A transaction is not necessarily arms-length commerce. Registration is not validation.
- Historical snapshots are append-only in normal operation; corrections create a new observation rather than silently rewriting prior evidence.
- The Machine Economy Index remains unscored until sector normalization and overlap tests are defensible.
Same rubric, including our own properties
These values are transparent editorial judgments and will themselves be versioned as the system matures.
| Source | Method | Direct | Machine | History | Independent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agent Economy | 0.94 | 0.96 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.9 | 95 |
| Graded | 0.94 | 1 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 94 |
| TOLL·402 Endpoint Trust Index | 0.97 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.9 | 0.94 | 84 |
| Agentic Payments Landscape | 0.94 | 0.7 | 0.45 | 0.88 | 0.92 | 77 |
| QuickNode ERC-8004 Explorer | 0.96 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 94 |
| x402scan | 0.82 | 0.9 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 82 |
| mpp.best | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.84 | 72 |
| LikenessIndex | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 0.5 | 72 |
| APIs.guru | 0.88 | 0.82 | 1 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 91 |
| GPU Cloud Prices | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.84 | 84 |
| TokenGauge | 0.84 | 0.78 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 85 |
Automatic collection
A scheduled GitHub workflow fetches only sources with a stable public data surface that we have explicitly configured. It stores a timestamped snapshot, updates the compact history and leaves failed sources marked as failures rather than carrying the prior value forward as fresh.
Anti-double-counting
The future composite will group observations by underlying phenomenon and provenance before weighting. If Agent Economy and another dashboard both ultimately consume the same Dune query, they can corroborate presentation but not create two independent measurements of economic activity.